Daily Basis History Charts - since 1897

Chartists should find CMI's daily-basis history charts of special interest. They include CMI's proprietary timing indicators, the CMI's Momentum Index and the CMI's Quick Response Index that we have published for the past 39 years. We have also included additional timing indicators that during that period we have found to be of great value in daily market decision-making. We hope you will review these charts - particularly now, since the market is in uncharted waters for many newcomers.

Historical charts can be invaluable to short term traders who are willing to put in some effort to compare current indicator and price patterns with those in history. For example, during the 1974 bear market, the SPX retraced exactly 50% (from 122 to 61) before making its low in October 1974. So we pointed out in our publication that a comparable downside target for the SPX from its March 2000 high would be 769. The October 2002 low in the SPX was at 768.65 - just 0.65 from the prediction, based solely on the history charts! Adding to the usefulness of these history charts is the fact that they are all updated every market day and can be found in the Current Charts section.

Printing the History Charts

If you're interested in the research part of this endeavor, we've found that a computer screen simply does not replace a good, old-fashioned 'hard copy'. Therefore, the charts have been formatted with a minimum of artwork to enable uncluttered printing. While you can simply 'print' from your browser, we have found that to be ungainly. The following method gives you only the charts with no frame (the dates are at the bottom of each chart and will be included in this printing method).

Procedure: Right click on the chart and select 'copy' from the popup menu. Open a new Word (or other such application) document, right click and select 'paste' from the popup menu. The chart (without the frame) should appear. This chart can be sized to suit you or, you can copy and paste two or more different charts on the same page. For example, to build a great set of working charts, on the same page paste the different charts for the same year, one below the other. Or, if you want to compare the indicator patterns of two different time periods, simply paste them on the same page, one below the other.

The Timing Indicators

Some of our short-term timing tools are the CMI's Quick Response Index, CMI's Momentum Index, the Stochastic, the Volatility Oscillators and the volatility indexes themselves - the CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index (VXO) for the OEX, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) for the SPX and broader based NYSE, and the NASDAQ Volatility Index (VXN) for QQQQ and the more speculative sector. These indicators show overbought/oversold areas, cycles, momentum and general strength of the move, and much more. They are discussed below:

For the general market we cover the Dow Industrials (DJI), S&P 500 Index (SPX), the NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ) and the American Stock Exchange (ASE), together with the Advance-Decline Index (issues) and the Volume Up-Volume Down Indexes. (The latter two are plotted on both a cumulative and an oscillator basis.)

CMI's Quick Response Index and the Momentum Index - These are our proprietary short term timing tools that show overbought and oversold areas, as defined by their accompanying Volatility Bands ("Upper Bound" and "Lower Bound"). They can also be used to measure the short-term cycles to enable the forecasting of a short-term trend reversal. There are numerous ways to use these indicators - some of which you will discover on your own by comparing the patterns in the oscillators. As with any short term timing tool, when it stays above the zero line past the cycle time it is designed to measure, it is temporarily rendered 'out of order'. Likewise if it remains below zero. The key to avoiding being on the wrong side of the move is to recognize when the oscillators are 'out of order'. The Stochastic indicators help confirm a potential signal in the Quick Response Indexes and/or Momentum Indexes, as do the Volatility Oscillators. All of the indicators shown here are an integral part of our short term timing systems that render the signals for puts and calls, as reported nightly to subscribers.

The CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index (VXO), shown in the Market Section of our charts, has proven to be a reliable indicator, rendering short-term sell signals when it dips below its lower trading bound and a short-term buy signal when it moves above its upper trading bound. (It should be noted that this index is 'upside-down', and will take some getting used to, but that's the way they report it.) Similar signals are given by the VXN and the VIX.

While the charts are not necessary to successfully trade the CMI signals, they do add additional information that can be helpful. We are confident you will find them both interesting and valuable in your short term option trading!